Current BTC Price
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0.00%
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Expected Cycle Peak Date
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Estimated Range:
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Cycle Top Price Predictions
Three scenarios based on MVRV analysis and historical cycle patterns
Conservative Target
Higher Probability (75%)
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Most likely minimum peak price
Primary Target
Base Case Scenario
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Expected cycle peak based on MVRV model
Optimistic Target
Lower Probability (25%)
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Potential maximum if conditions are favorable
Top 5 Factors Supporting Peak Date
Key indicators ranked by importance that support the predicted peak timing
1
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--% Weight
Analyzing model reasoning...
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Institutional trading benchmark showing fair value based on volume
VWAP:
$0
Deviation:
0%
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Fibonacci Support/Resistance
Key mathematical levels based on natural market patterns
0%
$0
SUPPORT
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Indicator Heat Map
Real-time risk assessment across multiple technical and on-chain indicators
Bitcoin Cycle Clock
Visual representation of where we are in the 4-year halving cycle
ACCUMULATION
Early cycle - Best buying opportunity
0% Complete
Optimal Portfolio Allocation
Dynamic allocation recommendations based on cycle position and risk analysis
The percentages below show your recommended target allocation. Adjust your holdings gradually to reach these targets.
Risk Assessment
Low
Moderate
Building
High
Extreme
0
Unified Risk Score
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Combines: Market indicators (50%) + Peak probability (50%) + Cycle timing
Bitcoin Cycle Progress
Early Cycle
Mid Cycle
Late Cycle
Peak Zone
0
Days to Peak Estimate
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Based on: Halving cycle timing + Market momentum + Historical patterns
📊 Model Data Sources
Ranked by importance in current prediction model (Peak Window phase)
1
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
18% Weight
✅ Real Data
MA111 vs 2×MA350 from CoinGecko historical prices
2
MVRV Z-Score
16% Weight
✅ Cross-Validated
Cross-validated from multiple sources
3
Cycle Timing
16% Weight
✅ Real Data
16.0 months post-halving (April 19, 2024)
4
Macro Economic Indicators
15% Weight
✅ Real FRED Data
DXY (120.6), Fed Rate (4.33%), Stablecoin Supply
5
Puell Multiple
12% Weight
⚠️ Estimated
Mining revenue vs 365-day average
6
NVT Ratio
12% Weight
✅ Real Data
Market cap vs transaction volume (Blockchain.info)
7
Fear & Greed Index
8% Weight
✅ Real Data
Market sentiment analysis (Alternative.me)
8
Stock-to-Flow
3% Weight
⚠️ Model-Based
Supply scarcity model with cycle adjustments
Supporting Real-Time Data
Bitcoin Dominance: 56.47%
CoinGecko
Fear & Greed Index: 44 (Fear)
Alternative.me
Funding Rates: 0.000036
Binance
Mining Hash Rate: 947 EH/s
Blockchain.info
ATH Reference: $124,533
Multi-source verified
Cycle Analysis
Days Since Halving
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Days to Peak Estimate
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Current Cycle Phase
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Risk Level
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MVRV Z-Score
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Historical Peaks: 2017=7.8, 2021=7.2
Data Quality
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Advanced Indicators
AI/ML Prediction
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Neural network pattern recognition
Market Sentiment
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Social media & news analysis
Options Activity
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Derivatives market positioning
Macro Conditions
---%
Fed policy & economic indicators
Whale Activity
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Large holder movements
Pi Cycle Status
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111 MA vs 2x 350 MA crossover
Key Market Metrics
24h High
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24h Low
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Market Cap
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24h Volume
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Bitcoin Dominance
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Top Signal:
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